Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x09be…9c32 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$954 (+3%) realized +$1,022 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$3,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$582
14 days+$619
30 days+$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$561
politics 2% +$6
world 2% +$54
sports 1% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 22% -5.1%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 74% 19% -6.5%
≤90d 32 +1.0% -8.7% 75% 22% -6.3%
all 32 +1.0% -8.7% 75% 22% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 22% -6.3%
10% -17.4% 9% -15.2%
15% -25.4% 6% -23.4%
20% -32.7% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$112 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$3,213
Realized+$1,022
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage35d
Avg bet$780
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 92¢ $1,592 $1,544 −$48 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $485 $483 −$2 (-0%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 94¢ $432 $430 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 95¢ $273 $285 +$12 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $250 $266 +$16 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $250 $206 −$44 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,563 +$72 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,005 +$25 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $500 +$60 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $496 +$54 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,733 +$67 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,421 +$79 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,001 +$43 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,647 +$167 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,178 +$457 +14%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $3,884 +$324 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 +$25 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $472 +$28 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $983 +$22 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $350 −$347 -99%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $181 +$4 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $172 +$11 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $153 +$17 +11%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $205 +$8 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $22 +$8 +35%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $415 +$247 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $456 −$44 -10%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $322 +$15 +5%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Lens win Coupe de France? May 23 $252 +$68 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $508 39m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $384 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $501 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $760 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $803 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $1,005 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $500 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $496 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $485 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,058 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $675 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $233 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $485 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $87 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $65 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $190 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $160 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $282 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $476 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $501 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $501 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $2,083 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $1,564 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $2,149 7d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $2,159 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,029 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,213.37 · official $3,213.37 (match) · 245 history records