trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 89¢ | $34,559 | $58,287 | +$23,728 (+69%) |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $3,251 | $0 | −$3,251 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 01 | $9,975 | +$5,169 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | May 19 | $202 | −$76 | -37% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o | May 11 | $3,254 | −$3,251 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 30 | $804 | +$91 | +11% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 30 | $6,782 | +$1,218 | +18% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | Apr 06 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 06 | $5,486 | +$2,175 | +40% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Apr 06 | $9,553 | +$9,579 | +100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 50% | 50% | +35.8% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 62% | 62% | +27.5% |
| all | 8 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 62% | 62% | +27.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -11.4% | 62% | +27.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -19.9% | 38% | +15.3% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 38% | +4.2% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 25% | -6.0% |