Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

09 0x09c0…e836 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,251 (+23%) realized +$1,505 · open −$254

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$364per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$42est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$1,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$294

7 days+$363

14 days+$363

30 days+$1,514

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+1.4%	-8.3%	40%	40%	+8.9%
≤30d	11	+8.0%	-2.3%	45%	45%	+31.4%
≤90d	11	+8.0%	-2.3%	45%	45%	+31.4%
all	11	+8.0%	-2.3%	45%	45%	+31.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	45%	+31.4%
10%	-11.7%	45%	+18.8%
15%	-20.2%	45%	+7.3%
20%	-28.0%	45%	-3.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$419 vs −$97 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$1,813

Realized+$1,505

Unrealized−$254

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Est. fees paid−$42

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 15

History coverage35d

Avg bet$364

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$1,467	$1,222	−$244 (-17%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Canada	53¢	52¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$203	+$232	+114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$203	+$148	+73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$549	+$296	+54%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$202	−$200	-99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$19	−$13	-69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	−$58	-29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$100	+$270	+270%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$201	−$201	-100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$1,562	+$1,150	+74%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	53¢	$203	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	47¢	$273	16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	53¢	$273	16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$73	23h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$203	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	59¢	$202	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$203	23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	0¢	$6	27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	1¢	$19	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	47¢	$143	33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$79	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$4	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$94	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$35	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$53	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$0	2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$11	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	99¢	$2,713	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,562	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,812.58 · official $1,812.58 (match) · 74 history records