Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09c0…305a crypto 96 markets active 7h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,510 (+1%) realized +$1,080 · open +$430
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%65W / 13L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1,758per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$26,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$51
30 days+$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$1,324
other 15% +$269
politics 11% +$24
finance 9% +$176
world 7% −$455
sports 0% −$133
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 12% -8.0%
≤90d 54 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 11% -9.3%
all 78 -0.9% -10.4% 83% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 10% -9.0%
10% -18.9% 6% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 4% -25.6%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,731) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$98 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$26,693
Realized+$1,080
Unrealized+$430
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses65 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)78 / 96
History coverage251d
Avg bet$1,758
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $8,959 $9,167 +$208 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,065 $4,110 +$45 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $3,040 $3,103 +$64 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,887 $1,897 +$10 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,690 $1,717 +$27 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,578 $1,595 +$17 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,113 $1,133 +$20 (+2%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $1,105 $1,104 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $752 $764 +$12 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $747 $756 +$8 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $345 $349 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $308 $312 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $159 $161 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $131 $132 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 97¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $129 +$8 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$25 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3,726 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 09 $147 +$2 +1%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,420 +$24 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 06 $965 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4,035 +$305 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 06 $1,644 +$77 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 06 $1,671 +$28 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 06 $3,599 +$83 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $192 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 31 $589 +$5 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $15,100 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? May 19 $650 +$10 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 16 $347 +$5 +1%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 29 $1,731 +$79 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Apr 28 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Apr 26 $341 +$15 +4%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30? Apr 24 $95 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 23 $558 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Apr 19 $24 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $66 +$17 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Apr 18 $20 $0 +2%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $197 −$183 -93%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 17 $67 +$32 +47%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Apr 17 $131 +$5 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 17 $1,361 −$554 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Apr 08 $252 +$7 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $188 +$6 +3%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30? Apr 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Apr 04 $599 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $5,000 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $774 +$12 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 01 $400 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,241 +$17 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,932 +$44 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 01 $798 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,887 +$6 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 01 $3,834 +$32 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY Yes 93¢ $133 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $832 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 2d
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY Yes 93¢ $146 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 4d
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $960 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $752 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 12d
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $157 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $83 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,693.01 · official $26,693.01 (match) · 978 history records