Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09c3…3256 other 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$313 (-85%) realized −$317 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$289
14 days−$289
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$288
crypto 6% −$22
culture 3% +$1
world 1% −$1
politics 1% −$3
sports 1% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -70.9% -73.7% 20% 20% -95.6%
≤30d 11 -86.8% -88.0% 9% 9% -95.7%
≤90d 13 -88.8% -89.9% 8% 8% -96.0%
all 13 -88.8% -89.9% 8% 8% -96.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.9% 8% -96.0%
10% -90.8% 8% -96.4%
15% -91.7% 8% -96.8%
20% -92.5% 0% -97.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$317
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)13 / 30
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 98¢ $290 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 32d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 32d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 34d
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes $1 34d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 34d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? BUY No $3 34d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 34d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $2 36d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $1 36d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $1 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.86 · official $36.87 (match) · 47 history records