Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
09 0x09c4…2378 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,230 (-8%) realized −$5,400 · open +$1,170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%47W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$534est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$7,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,430
7 days+$2,290
14 days+$2,290
30 days+$2,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$3,475
other 21% −$8,033
crypto 10% +$1,155
politics 1% −$371
world 1% +$117
finance 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +12.6% +1.9% 64% 62% -4.3%
≤30d 72 +12.6% +1.9% 64% 62% -4.3%
≤90d 72 +12.6% +1.9% 64% 62% -4.3%
all 79 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 58% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 58% -16.1%
10% -13.0% 57% -24.1%
15% -21.4% 51% -31.5%
20% -29.1% 41% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$591) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$366 vs −$687 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$7,745
Realized−$5,400
Unrealized+$1,170
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses47 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$534
Open positions14
Markets (closed)79 / 93
History coverage602d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,620 +$620 (+62%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 20¢ 45¢ $529 $1,170 +$641 (+121%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 60¢ $448 $952 +$504 (+112%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 72¢ $418 $792 +$374 (+89%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Under 49¢ 46¢ $734 $687 −$47 (-6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Over 46¢ 27¢ $1,150 $675 −$475 (-41%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 78¢ 76¢ $390 $382 −$8 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $385 $382 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $176 $186 +$10 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $135 $167 +$32 (+24%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 62¢ 91¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Over 43¢ 81¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+88%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 1¢ $534 $8 −$526 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $338 +$412 +122%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $195 +$105 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $378 +$322 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $790 +$11 +1%
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $1,032 +$367 +36%
StarCraft II: Solar vs Zoun (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $289 +$117 +40%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $414 −$405 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $403 −$400 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $447 +$553 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $375 +$125 +33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $321 +$179 +56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $330 +$370 +112%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $354 −$352 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $172 +$228 +133%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $312 +$188 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $480 −$480 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $477 −$470 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $264 +$236 +90%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $207 +$98 +47%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $291 +$209 +72%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $475 +$425 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 +$100 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $135 −$134 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $52 +$18 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $233 +$40 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $120 +$180 +150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$14 +56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $335 +$274 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$10 +39%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $296 +$104 +35%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $468 +$432 +92%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $38 +$62 +163%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $547 +$453 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $56 +$44 +78%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $835 +$239 +29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $462 +$338 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $400 +$600 +150%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,507 +$1,493 +99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $765 −$765 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $457 −$455 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $468 −$468 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $295 −$295 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $276 −$276 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $451 +$399 +88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $1,013 +$667 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,002 +$898 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $344 +$501 +146%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $429 −$396 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $44 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $393 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $237 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $127 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $14 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $388 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $577 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $346 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $483 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $6 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $23 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $19 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $193 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $95 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $116 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $93 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $508 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $310 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $343 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $318 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $254 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $497 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $234 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $0 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $351 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $254 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $203 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,744.77 · official $7,799.75 (match) · 464 history records