Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ce…9de9 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$62 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$4
other 30% +$59
politics 10% −$1
sports 2% +$4
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.8% -2.4% 43% 29% -10.2%
≤30d 13 +4.3% -5.6% 38% 15% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +4.3% -5.6% 38% 15% -9.8%
all 49 +5.3% -4.7% 37% 8% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 8% -5.5%
10% -13.8% 6% -14.6%
15% -22.1% 4% -22.8%
20% -29.8% 4% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.23 per $1 lost it wins $10.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage263d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $143 −$3 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -17%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $57 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $166 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $29 +$60 +203%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Nov 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 01 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 31 $8 +$1 +7%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 31 $21 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $6 −$1 -25%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $60 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $28 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $57 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $85 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $17 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.31 · official $6.08 (match) · 211 history records