Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ce…9868 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-16%) realized −$167 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$50
crypto 46% +$101
world 1% −$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -35.6% -41.7% 35% 35% -22.6%
≤30d 17 -35.6% -41.7% 35% 35% -22.6%
≤90d 17 -35.6% -41.7% 35% 35% -22.6%
all 17 -35.6% -41.7% 35% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 35% -22.6%
10% -47.3% 29% -30.0%
15% -52.4% 29% -36.8%
20% -57.0% 29% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 22¢ 50¢ $80 $177 +$97 (+121%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$48 +158%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $31 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $31 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $30 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $31 36h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 36h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.19 · official $177.19 (match) · 28 history records