Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09cf…8c1e
crypto · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$246 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$253
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$138
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage65d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $391 $138 −$253 (-65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $85 +$20 +23%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $45 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 10 $4 +$16 +392%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 93% −$281
crypto 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $40 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $86 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $114 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $52 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $12 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 62d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -56.4%
≤30d 6 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -56.4%
≤90d 26 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 42% -15.7%
all 26 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 42% -15.7%
10% -26.1% 35% -23.8%
15% -33.2% 23% -31.2%
20% -39.8% 19% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.69 · official $137.69 (match) · 82 history records