Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09d1…a3a7 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-5%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.7% -37.3% 60% 40% -50.3%
≤30d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 43% -38.2%
≤90d 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 43% -38.2%
all 21 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 43% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 43% -38.2%
10% -35.8% 38% -44.1%
15% -42.0% 33% -49.5%
20% -47.7% 29% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$12 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records