Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09d2…26ae sports 998 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,835 (+8%) realized +$4,316 · open −$481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%507W / 489L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,089
7 days−$2,990
14 days−$3,183
30 days+$4,770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$1,072
world 31% +$8,582
sports 26% −$2,934
other 9% −$1,332
politics 1% +$52
tech 0% −$8
culture 0% +$9
economics 0% +$24
finance 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +69.0% +52.9% 23% 23% -49.6%
≤30d 23 +33.9% +21.1% 26% 22% +25.2%
≤90d 236 -7.1% -16.0% 44% 38% +12.1%
all 996 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 37% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 37% -0.3%
10% -23.7% 30% -9.8%
15% -31.1% 25% -18.5%
20% -37.8% 20% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$5,354
Realized+$4,316
Unrealized−$481
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses507 / 489
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions1
Markets (closed)996 / 998
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5,835 $5,354 −$481 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 −$13 -7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $218 −$212 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $723 −$473 -65%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 −$29 -28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $362 −$362 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $83 +$1,187 +1429%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,049 −$2,049 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $623 −$557 -89%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $587 +$167 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,138 −$722 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $258 +$490 +190%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $193 −$193 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $730 −$730 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $247 −$247 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $565 −$565 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,115 −$1,047 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2,581 +$10,794 +418%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $1 +$2 +157%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $6 +$5 +83%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $1 +$1 +117%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $2 +$2 +81%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 17 $2 +$1 +99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $3 +$3 +84%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 17 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$4 +74%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +122%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $23 +$18 +78%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $2 +$2 +99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $7 +$1 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 17 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $712 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $788 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $174 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $186 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $155 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $250 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $620 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $75 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $104 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $258 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $83 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2,049 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2,137 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 25¢ $196 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $202 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $13 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $208 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $188 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $239 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $67 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $519 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $740 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $748 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,353.83 · official $6,053.83 · 3500 history records