Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09d3…4e84 world 11 markets active 116d ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$338,734 (+384%) realized +$338,734 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8,021per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$340,980
crypto 18% −$4,059
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+85.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 +104.9% +85.4% 50% 50% +446.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +85.4% 50% +446.1%
10% +67.7% 50% +393.8%
15% ← realistic here +51.5% 50% +346.1%
20% +36.6% 50% +302.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +498% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
33.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68,531 vs −$1,146 · ×59.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×59.78 per $1 lost it wins $59.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$338,734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8,021
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 04 $1,967 +$1,722 +88%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $1,411 +$1,547 +110%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 01 $1,076 −$64 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $7,628 −$1,535 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $7,129 −$2,300 -32%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,950 +$11,050 +567%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $56,250 +$327,108 +582%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 27 $160 −$160 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 19 $1,842 +$1,228 +67%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $5,511 −$1,674 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $2,000 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 749 history records