Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09d3…92b4 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$824 (+29%) realized +$841 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$731
7 days+$731
14 days+$731
30 days+$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$852
crypto 33% −$221
economics 10% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.8% -16.5% 36% 36% +17.5%
≤30d 11 -7.8% -16.5% 36% 36% +17.5%
≤90d 11 -7.8% -16.5% 36% 36% +17.5%
all 16 -31.1% -37.7% 25% 25% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 25% +7.0%
10% -43.6% 25% -3.2%
15% -49.1% 25% -12.6%
20% -54.1% 19% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$79 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$841
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage617d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$235 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$261 +248%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 +$491 +97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $44 −$6 -13%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $105 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 13h
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 454d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $38 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 504d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 504d
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 616d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.33 · official $83.33 (match) · 32 history records