Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x09d5…7df9 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-7%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$106
politics 33% −$136
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.9% +15.7% 75% 75% +45.2%
≤30d 4 +27.9% +15.7% 75% 75% +45.2%
≤90d 6 -14.7% -22.9% 50% 50% -17.0%
all 10 -48.8% -53.7% 30% 30% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.7% 30% -19.7%
10% -58.1% 30% -27.4%
15% -62.2% 30% -34.4%
20% -65.9% 10% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$22 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage158d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$26 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$56 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$33 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 14 $136 −$136 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 20-26? Jan 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.50 · official $74.50 (match) · 21 history records