Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09d6…bfd6 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 752d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$7,574 (-38%) realized −$10,335 · open +$2,761
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$7,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$7,859
other 29% +$3,040
world 6% −$2
economics 3% +$4
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -22.0% -29.4% 40% 40% -60.9%
all 29 -10.6% -19.1% 55% 31% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 31% -55.4%
10% -26.8% 31% -59.7%
15% -33.9% 28% -63.6%
20% -40.4% 24% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$700) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$661 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

752d coverage
Net worth$7,761
Realized−$10,335
Unrealized+$2,761
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage752d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 74¢ $4,000 $6,761 +$2,761 (+69%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +97%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $308 +$288 +93%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $69 −$68 -99%
AJ Auxerre vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $100 +$92 +92%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $800 −$800 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $700 −$700 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $925 −$925 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 07 $1,921 +$577 +30%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 05 $2,077 −$2,077 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 05 $4,725 −$2,939 -62%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Mar 04 $20 +$19 +96%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5) Feb 13 $24 +$27 +108%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jan 28 $350 +$3 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 17 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 03 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $310 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 21 $1,128 −$3 -0%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Oct 21 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Oct 21 $1 +$1 +89%
Trump election interference trial doesn't start before November? Oct 21 $9 $0 +1%
Trump sentenced to community service? Oct 24 $8 $0 -1%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Sep 26 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum above $3,500 on July 26? Aug 25 $3 +$3 +103%
Roaring Kitty billionaire before July? Jul 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win Group D? Jul 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Hunter Biden found guilty in gun case? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $1,016 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $1,017 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $1,017 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $1,017 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1,009 49d
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 51¢ $308 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 61d
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $69 64d
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $800 114d
AJ Auxerre vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $100 114d
Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $925 114d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $621 115d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,000 115d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 115d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 115d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 115d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $135 116d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $132 116d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $129 116d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $129 116d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $129 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,760.74 · official $5,644.97 · 74 history records