Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09d7…350d other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 24% −$21
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage135d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $325 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $557 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $343 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $629 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $673 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $141 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $284 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $325 −$2 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $287 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $206 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $547 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $63 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $64 7h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $64 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 12h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 12h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 13h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 14h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 16h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 18h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 20h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 21h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 23h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 26h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 29h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 29h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 30h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 34h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 38h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $65 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 46h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.42 · official $63.42 (match) · 1341 history records