Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09da…d07f other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-19%) realized −$173 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$148
sports 37% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -43.6%
≤30d 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -43.6%
≤90d 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -43.6%
all 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 38% -43.6%
10% -50.7% 38% -49.0%
15% -55.5% 38% -53.9%
20% -59.8% 25% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$60 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 62¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 64¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 44¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 34¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 28¢ $50 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 32¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 38h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $51 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $51 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.41 · official $437.49 · 19 history records