Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09da…50bc sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,246 (+28%) realized +$5,223 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%82W / 76L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$210
14 days+$505
30 days+$4,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$4,731
other 23% +$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +9.9% -0.5% 61% 57% +0.9%
≤30d 91 +6.5% -3.7% 52% 48% +20.4%
≤90d 158 +4.5% -5.4% 52% 48% +16.3%
all 158 +4.5% -5.4% 52% 48% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 48% +16.3%
10% -14.5% 41% +5.2%
15% -22.7% 35% -5.0%
20% -30.3% 30% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$97 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized+$5,223
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses82 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions14
Markets (closed)158 / 172
History coverage66d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $652 $681 +$29 (+4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 61¢ 99¢ $75 $122 +$47 (+63%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season 9z Team 57¢ 100¢ $22 $38 +$17 (+76%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Over 71¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic Elena Micic 71¢ 100¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner shimmer 60¢ 78¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs shimmer 50¢ 53¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 47¢ 100¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+113%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Atrix Esports 30¢ 100¢ $3 $12 +$8 (+233%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 62¢ 65¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi Han Shi 72¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+39%)
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Gustavo Almeida 66¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi Vaishnavi Adkar 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? No 67¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic Stephanie Judith Visscher 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $82 +$76 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $39 −$27 -69%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $61 −$24 -39%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $30 +$13 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $91 −$90 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Min Liu vs Berta Bonardi Jun 23 $34 +$5 +16%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $72 +$120 +166%
ITF Asuncion: Amanda Carolina Nava Elkin vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Riss Jun 23 $12 +$1 +5%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $108 −$54 -50%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $30 +$20 +67%
ITF Asuncion: Helena Bueno vs Catalina Delmas Schaerer Jun 23 $11 +$7 +67%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $33 +$39 +118%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $4 +$1 +36%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 +$7 +365%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $71 +$45 +63%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$71 +139%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $86 −$86 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $168 +$19 +11%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $40 +$40 +100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $15 +$2 +15%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $11 +$3 +29%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $61 +$71 +116%
ITF Rome, USA: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Malaika Rapolu Jun 23 $2 +$3 +124%
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil Jun 23 $74 +$41 +55%
ITF Bergamo: Samuel Vincent Ruggeri vs Pietro Romeo Scomparin Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $34 +$80 +232%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $48 +$4 +8%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 23 $18 −$17 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $86 +$63 +73%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$231 +451%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $209 +$63 +30%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $354 −$354 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 72¢ $6 8m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 9m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 9m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 53¢ $3 14m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 60¢ $5 17m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 50¢ $3 22m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 29¢ $2 22m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $20 27m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $31 27m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 31¢ $3 33m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 38m
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 38m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $31 52m
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY 9z Team 60¢ $13 58m
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 79¢ $30 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 78¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 30¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 70¢ $10 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY 9z Team 53¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $2 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $31 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $30 1h
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 67¢ $30 1h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $6 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Min Liu vs Berta Bonardi BUY Berta Bonardi 99¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.37 · official $980.41 (match) · 665 history records