Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x09de…cab9 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$190 (+36%) realized +$113 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$223
sports 6% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% +76.2%
≤30d 3 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% +76.2%
≤90d 3 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% +76.2%
all 3 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% +76.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 33% +76.2%
10% -36.2% 33% +59.4%
15% -42.3% 33% +44.0%
20% -48.0% 33% +29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +95% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$15 · ×13.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.65 per $1 lost it wins $6.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $50 $89 +$39 (+78%)
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $30 $59 +$29 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$205 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 14m
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 39h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.91 · official $414.27 (match) · 9 history records