Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09de…49b8 other 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,926 (-1%) realized −$1,926 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,743per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,245
politics 35% −$104
sports 11% −$596
economics 3% −$6
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +5.6% -4.4% 14% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 111 +0.5% -9.1% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 143 -1.0% -10.5% 15% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.0% 10% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 9% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,526) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$26 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$1,926
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,743
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $245 $244 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,763 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,526 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11,642 −$12 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,747 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,153 −$5 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $62 +$71 +114%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $4,217 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $687 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,050 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,118 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $6,123 −$7 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $4,015 −$6 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,464 −$5 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $52 +$73 +140%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $83 +$43 +52%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $6,620 −$7 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $3,122 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $812 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $4,851 −$6 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,607 −$4 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,895 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,696 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 14m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $285 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $285 3h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 44h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,366 47h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $397 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,648 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,433 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,434 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,476 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,478 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,248 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,250 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,634 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,636 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,401 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,403 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $62 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,507 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.40 · official $244.40 (match) · 500 history records