Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e0…e05c other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$23
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$33
sports 10% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -35.9% -42.0% 12% 12% -14.6%
≤30d 120 -32.8% -39.2% 13% 13% -10.4%
≤90d 120 -32.8% -39.2% 13% 13% -10.4%
all 120 -32.8% -39.2% 13% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 13% -10.4%
10% -45.0% 13% -19.0%
15% -50.3% 13% -26.8%
20% -55.2% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$3 · ×6.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)120 / 130
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +649%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 +$12 +595%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$33 +649%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$26 +1288%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.36 · official $30.54 (match) · 154 history records