Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09e2…29de
politics · 308 markets active 4h ago
10.0score
+$23,014 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22,244 · open +$727
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY politics specialistFresh edge
Net worth$2,070
Realized+$22,244
Unrealized+$727
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses195 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)299 / 308
History coverage726d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 9 History 299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,123
7 days+$2,242
14 days+$2,534
30 days+$3,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $433 $617 +$184 (+42%)
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 41¢ 92¢ $226 $506 +$280 (+124%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 44¢ 64¢ $249 $368 +$119 (+48%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $176 $273 +$97 (+55%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+9%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 48¢ 96¢ $36 $71 +$36 (+101%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $43 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 15¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+238%)
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? No 38¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Yes 65¢ $297 $0 −$297 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Yes 67¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3,334 +$1,228 +37%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $205 +$48 +24%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,074 +$557 +27%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $957 +$174 +18%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $597 +$109 +18%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 10 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $90 +$107 +119%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $317 +$293 +92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $650 +$304 +47%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 28 $369 +$127 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 23 $862 +$38 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $1,403 +$310 +22%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 23 $68 +$52 +76%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $165 −$161 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $269 +$229 +85%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 14 $301 −$297 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 08 $304 +$159 +52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by May 31, 2026? May 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 02 $142 +$58 +41%
US bank failure by December 31? May 01 $89 +$21 +23%
US bank failure by June 30? May 01 $1,055 +$367 +35%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $17 −$7 -42%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 202 Apr 24 $166 +$79 +48%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 24, 202 Apr 24 $274 +$124 +45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $248 −$35 -14%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? Apr 20 $1,116 +$180 +16%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $750 +$960 +128%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $412 +$219 +53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $473 +$217 +46%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $1,377 +$631 +46%
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +35%
Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in t Apr 04 $292 −$55 -19%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 02 $650 +$322 +50%
Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Da Mar 30 $486 +$91 +19%
Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? Mar 30 $1,959 +$237 +12%
Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the Mar 24 $365 +$134 +37%
Will Venstre win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danis Mar 24 $108 +$42 +39%
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in t Mar 24 $211 +$48 +23%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $280 +$105 +37%
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Mar 22 $244 +$67 +28%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 20 $950 −$196 -21%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19? Mar 19 $3,251 +$537 +16%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18? Mar 19 $814 +$262 +32%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026? Mar 10 $3,111 +$889 +29%
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? Mar 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 05 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Trump post "President DJT" on Truth Social this week? (March 8) Mar 03 $615 +$107 +18%
Will Donald Trump say "Scale" on Truth Social this week? Feb 28 $93 +$61 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 57% +$13,622
other 26% +$5,480
world 11% +$2,114
crypto 3% +$2,465
tech 1% −$220
economics 1% −$107
sports 1% −$464
culture 0% +$81
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,613 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $400 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $132 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $478 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $940 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $205 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $3,334 3h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL Yes 97¢ $1,131 37h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL No 97¢ $309 38h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL No 97¢ $397 38h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? SELL No 97¢ $23 39h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? SELL No 97¢ $1 39h
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? BUY No 72¢ $18 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 81¢ $957 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 81¢ $597 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 78¢ $2,074 39h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $197 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $90 2d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $44 6d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.2% +25.1% 100% 100% +18.2%
≤30d 17 +30.8% +18.3% 88% 88% +16.5%
≤90d 45 +26.5% +14.4% 84% 82% +16.0%
all 299 +24.4% +12.6% 65% 57% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 57% +14.2%
10% +1.8% 48% +3.3%
15% -8.0% 37% -6.7%
20% -17.1% 27% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,070.20 · official $2,070.20 (match) · 1608 history records