Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e2…c477 politics 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,114 (-2%) realized −$1,058 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 112L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$104
crypto 32% $0
economics 12% −$11
other 9% −$367
sports 5% −$447
world 2% −$79
tech 2% −$145
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 24 -41.8% -47.3% 4% 0% -14.5%
all 114 -10.4% -18.9% 2% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -11.3%
10% -26.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -33.7% 0% -27.6%
20% -40.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$511) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$1,058
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage131d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $102 $155 +$53 (+52%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $102 $48 −$53 (-52%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $5,263 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,255 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,566 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,657 −$3 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $2,949 −$8 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $200 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 21 $451 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,470 −$10 -1%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get betw Apr 14 $511 +$17 +3%
Hornets vs. Wizards Apr 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10? Apr 14 $335 −$335 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 14 $78 −$78 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Nets vs. Thunder Apr 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $2,750 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $452 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 4AM ET Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4AM ET Mar 09 $153 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $100 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 08 $65 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 08 $80 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $474 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $300 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11AM ET Mar 06 $474 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $2,896 −$6 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $400 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $2,139 −$4 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 02 $1,320 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $226 −$27 -12%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $90 −$2 -2%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $186 −$3 -2%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $42 −$22 -52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 01 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Mar 01 $24 −$4 -17%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Mar 01 $687 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $778 −$2 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $3,519 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $50 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $60 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $776 34d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,252 34d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,562 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,654 34d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $777 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,657 34d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,566 34d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,255 34d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $195 45d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $198 45d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 81¢ $50 66d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $401 66d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $402 66d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 81¢ $50 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $452 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $452 96d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $452 99d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $453 99d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $453 102d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 82¢ $453 102d
Mavericks vs. Raptors BUY Mavericks 23¢ $11 103d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $100 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.51 · official $209.51 (match) · 423 history records