Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e4…cd46 sports 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-34%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$20
sports 47% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 40% 40% -41.5%
≤30d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 40% 40% -41.5%
≤90d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 40% 40% -41.5%
all 10 -33.3% -39.7% 40% 40% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 40% -41.5%
10% -45.4% 30% -47.1%
15% -50.7% 20% -52.2%
20% -55.5% 20% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $20 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records