Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
09 0x09e5…6581 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+15%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 71% -0.7%
≤30d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 71% -0.7%
≤90d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 71% -0.7%
all 7 +9.2% -1.2% 71% 71% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 71% -0.7%
10% -10.7% 71% -10.2%
15% -19.3% 57% -18.9%
20% -27.2% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$96 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$66 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$35 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$35 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$99 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $96 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $98 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records