Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e6…9674 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$4
sports 27% −$25
other 8% −$5
economics 6% −$3
crypto 6% $0
world 4% −$2
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.9% -56.5% 0% 0% -30.7%
≤30d 4 -26.0% -33.0% 25% 0% -17.7%
≤90d 5 -34.3% -40.6% 20% 0% -17.9%
all 60 -12.6% -20.9% 15% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -28.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -35.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -41.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage236d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $80 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $2 $0 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 28 $81 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $88 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 04 $1 $0 -50%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $4 $0 -11%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $79 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $82 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $81 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $81 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 30d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 103d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 103d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 106d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $84 112d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $84 120d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $79 131d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $80 140d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $80 141d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 142d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 142d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 143d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 144d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar BUY Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $81 146d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 146d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.63 · official $56.63 (match) · 212 history records