Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e7…1fff weather 877 markets active 5d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$218 (+2%) realized +$251 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%394W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day169.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$398
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 22% −$187
sports 20% −$200
weather 19% −$181
other 15% −$12
politics 14% −$241
world 4% +$394
tech 3% +$10
finance 2% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +7.0% -3.2% 54% 37% -15.2%
≤30d 831 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 831 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 40% -13.0%
all 831 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 40% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 33% -21.4%
15% -26.6% 22% -29.0%
20% -33.8% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses394 / 437
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions65
Markets (closed)831 / 877
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day169.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 31¢ 61¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+97%)
Will 8+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 36¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 25¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+108%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No 13¢ 91¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+600%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 19¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? No 42¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 81¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 12¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? No 86¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 70¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? No 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +153%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $118 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -71%
SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $20 +$34 +170%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 13 $45 −$14 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +179%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $12 +$15 +123%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $149 +$6 +4%
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -24%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$17 +64%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 13 $7 +$11 +164%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$17 +825%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 61¢ $5 5d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 5d
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 5d
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? SELL No 28¢ $2 5d
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 5d
SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $4 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $7 5d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $6 5d
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 5d
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $8 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.49 · official $112.37 · 3500 history records