Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ec…7fa5 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$17
politics 31% −$15
sports 14% +$43
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -1.1% -10.6% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage129d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $357 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $271 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $229 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $286 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $284 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $456 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $281 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 17h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 21h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 29h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 36h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records