Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x09ec…427d sports 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,298 (-1%) realized −$2,542 · open −$756
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%318W / 386L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1,340est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,394
other 5% −$2,412
crypto 0% −$238
world 0% +$70
politics 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -21.4% -28.9% 32% 32% -22.3%
≤30d 90 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 43% -3.8%
≤90d 254 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 43% -12.1%
all 704 -8.9% -17.5% 45% 44% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -11.1%
10% -25.4% 42% -19.6%
15% -32.6% 38% -27.4%
20% -39.2% 32% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$307 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$2,542
Unrealized−$756
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses318 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,340
Open positions2
Markets (closed)704 / 706
History coverage244d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 49¢ 24¢ $504 $243 −$261 (-52%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Paper Rex 46¢ 1¢ $506 $12 −$495 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $263 −$260 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $503 −$241 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $692 −$685 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $511 +$181 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $519 −$509 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $699 −$689 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $411 +$289 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $159 +$252 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $505 −$346 -69%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $160 −$157 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $497 −$73 -15%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $264 +$163 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $468 +$1,001 +214%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $477 −$71 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$12 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$2 -1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $550 +$410 +74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $337 −$330 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $425 −$69 -16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $514 +$442 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $509 −$499 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $299 −$293 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $698 +$663 +95%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $519 +$308 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $504 −$494 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $260 −$257 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $508 +$758 +149%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $246 −$244 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $261 −$15 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $509 +$771 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $945 −$938 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $519 +$425 +82%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $147 −$144 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $86 +$65 +76%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $430 −$344 -80%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $576 −$571 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 +$147 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $197 −$70 -36%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $512 +$621 +121%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $196 −$194 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $501 −$493 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $511 25m
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $514 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $263 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 26¢ $262 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $503 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $692 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $692 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $511 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $519 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $699 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $411 43h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $411 43h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $159 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $159 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $505 45h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $160 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $160 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $224 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $203 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $427 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $264 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $264 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $274 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 84¢ $1,469 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $468 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $406 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $477 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $540 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $552 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $406 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.13 · official $254.13 (match) · 1488 history records