Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09f4…5c6a sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,051 (-6%) realized −$1,051 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$695
14 days+$688
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,865
other 7% +$749
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.1% +7.8% 57% 57% +19.3%
≤30d 22 +12.7% +2.0% 55% 55% +6.3%
≤90d 28 +4.2% -5.8% 54% 54% +4.6%
all 56 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 43% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 43% -15.7%
10% -13.2% 41% -23.8%
15% -21.6% 38% -31.1%
20% -29.3% 36% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$291 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage400d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $405 +$108 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$273 +134%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $336 +$170 +51%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $71 +$99 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $163 +$408 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 +$92 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $277 +$115 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $149 −$147 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $299 +$340 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $203 +$175 +86%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $293 +$243 +83%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $424 −$420 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $199 +$256 +129%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $220 −$216 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $299 +$41 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Apr 29 $299 +$91 +30%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5 Apr 18 $200 +$186 +93%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 08 $145 +$137 +94%
Dream vs. Sun Sep 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Euro Basket: Italy vs Slovenia Sep 07 $945 −$341 -36%
Euro Basket: Sweden vs Turkey Sep 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Liberty vs. Storm Sep 05 $700 −$700 -100%
Euro Basket: Poland vs Belgium Sep 05 $113 +$694 +614%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 23 $501 −$470 -94%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 20 $396 +$802 +203%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 13 $347 −$347 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 06 $380 +$1,428 +376%
Knicks vs. Pacers May 31 $841 −$841 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 29 $570 −$570 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 29 $990 −$990 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 29 $499 −$499 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers May 29 $176 −$176 -100%
Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 28 $93 +$83 +89%
Knicks vs. Pacers May 26 $520 +$563 +108%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 25 $500 −$304 -61%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 24 $293 −$293 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 22 $502 +$818 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 38m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $109 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $404 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $203 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $203 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 77¢ $133 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 76¢ $335 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $203 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $163 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $143 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $71 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $71 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $203 5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $74 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $203 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $149 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $299 10d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $203 15d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Zhejiang Lions 100¢ $537 16d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 54¢ $293 16d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 49¢ $71 18d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 53¢ $51 18d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Zhejiang Lions 71¢ $303 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records