Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
09 0x09f4…dac0 sports 450 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,987 (+8%) realized +$27,968 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%201W / 247L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$5,185est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,144
7 days+$8,699
14 days+$35,234
30 days+$41,901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$26,861
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -27.6% -34.5% 35% 35% +10.9%
≤30d 120 +23.2% +11.4% 42% 42% +28.2%
≤90d 448 +2.4% -7.4% 45% 44% -2.1%
all 448 +2.4% -7.4% 45% 44% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 44% -2.1%
10% -16.3% 44% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.3% 44% -20.0%
20% -31.8% 44% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$832) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$871 vs −$600 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,767
Realized+$27,968
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses201 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$5,185
Open positions2
Markets (closed)448 / 450
History coverage90d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 30¢ $1,476 $1,502 +$25 (+2%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Las Vegas Aces 48¢ 46¢ $272 $265 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 28 $34 +$34 +98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,733 −$1,726 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3,780 −$3,780 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5 Jun 27 $844 −$832 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $584 −$584 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5,995 +$5,550 +93%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $880 +$671 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $453 −$453 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $912 −$912 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $232 −$232 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $779 −$779 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 26 $363 −$363 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $6,382 +$6,496 +102%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5) Jun 25 $84 −$82 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $3,847 +$2,800 +73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,954 +$2,794 +95%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $502 −$502 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $401 −$401 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $701 −$701 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Jun 24 $422 +$420 +99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,556 +$4,351 +170%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $401 +$713 +178%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $850 −$850 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $314 −$314 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,434 +$4,434 +100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $7,818 +$7,809 +100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,301 +$2,813 +122%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,038 +$4,172 +103%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $571 +$789 +138%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $352 +$784 +223%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,226 +$3,594 +85%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $907 −$907 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $427 +$660 +154%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $156 −$154 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $146 −$144 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $277 −$277 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,115 −$1,115 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $94 +$125 +133%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,770 +$3,952 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $671 +$719 +107%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,915 +$4,215 +145%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,812 −$1,811 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $792 −$792 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $165 −$163 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,579 +$2,470 +156%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $488 −$488 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $56 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $889 2h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $87 3h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $4 3h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $0 3h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $67 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $2 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $9 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 48¢ $9 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $3 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $84 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $1 4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $5 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $240 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $6 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $310 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $597 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $580 12h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $885 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2,250 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,766.62 · official $1,766.62 (match) · 3315 history records