Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09f6…48ce world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% $0
other 23% −$5
crypto 6% +$1
finance 4% +$1
politics 4% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 11% -10.4%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.0% 43% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 6% -9.4%
all 36 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 +$4 +14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 −$5 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $34 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $66 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $32 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $15 $0 -3%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $29 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $7 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $27 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records