Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x09f9…8450 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,007 (+27%) realized +$1,359 · open −$352
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$407
other 12% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +25.8% +13.8% 57% 55% +19.0%
≤30d 47 +25.8% +13.8% 57% 55% +19.0%
≤90d 47 +25.8% +13.8% 57% 55% +19.0%
all 47 +25.8% +13.8% 57% 55% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 55% +19.0%
10% +2.9% 55% +7.6%
15% -7.0% 55% -2.8%
20% -16.1% 53% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$50 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$1,359
Unrealized−$352
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage7d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$22 +72%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $132 −$130 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $132 +$139 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 +$45 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $122 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $193 +$3 +2%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 +$219 +712%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $42 +$28 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $355 +$353 +99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$18 +120%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$29 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $253 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $102 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $132 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $271 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $132 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $122 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 51¢ $101 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.14 · official $248.14 (match) · 82 history records