Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09fb…b65c politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$1
other 19% $0
economics 19% $0
crypto 10% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage120d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $116 −$1 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 31 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $118 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $115 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $38 13h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $115 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 15d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $116 29d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $116 30d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 39d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 40d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 42d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $116 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $116 47d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $116 48d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $116 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $116 53d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $116 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $117 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $117 73d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $117 75d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $117 75d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $117 80d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $117 81d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 83d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 84d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 90d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records