Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09fc…4cd4
economics · 102 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
−$1,256 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$125 · open −$1,382
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,781
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$1,382
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses16 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)89 / 102
Avg bet$509
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 16 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days−$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $1,801 $3,063 +$1,262 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $1,801 $538 −$1,262 (-70%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 43¢ $187 $91 −$96 (-51%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 22¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-72%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 46¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 36¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $300 −$74 -25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 05 $250 +$97 +39%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $500 −$25 -5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? May 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $3,229 −$512 -16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $6,482 +$3 +0%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $670 −$70 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 27 $96 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $949 +$10 +1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 25 $492 +$16 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $3,594 +$339 +9%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $132 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Mar 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 22 $58 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 21 $860 −$10 -1%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 21 $74 −$23 -31%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $333 $0 +0%
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 21 $51 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeas Mar 20 $239 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $198 +$32 +16%
Valorant: Contra GC vs No Sweat Blossom (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Lati Mar 19 $436 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series So Mar 18 $547 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 17 $546 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $348 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 16 $49 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Ser Mar 16 $150 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Maestro Esca vs Giggioletti (BO3) - Europe MENA Lea Mar 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 14 $1,200 +$302 +25%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $494 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs HAVU (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Mar 13 $546 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asia Championships Close Mar 12 $545 $0 +0%
Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $1 $0 +35%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MOUZ NXT (BO5) - European Pro League Series 5 P Mar 12 $1,122 $0 +0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 12 $270 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $200 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - BetBoo Mar 11 $422 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - Asia Championships C Mar 11 $700 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs FOKUS (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champio Mar 10 $230 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$43
politics 22% −$1,261
economics 20% +$315
world 10% +$365
crypto 6% −$514
other 1% −$118
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $128 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $48 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $300 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 7 +10.1% -0.4% 57% 29% -9.2%
≤90d 39 -5.2% -14.2% 33% 13% -9.1%
all 89 -1.5% -10.9% 18% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 8% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 7% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,780.56 · official $3,780.57 (match) · 3500 history records