Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09fc…98a8 crypto 160 markets active 3d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-23%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$25
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$141
other 12% −$35
politics 3% −$10
weather 1% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -40.0% -45.7% 44% 22% -32.3%
≤30d 148 -37.8% -43.7% 24% 17% -28.0%
≤90d 156 -38.5% -44.3% 24% 16% -34.0%
all 156 -38.5% -44.3% 24% 16% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 16% -34.0%
10% -49.7% 11% -40.4%
15% -54.5% 6% -46.1%
20% -59.0% 3% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 160
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on June 2? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $7 −$6 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $1 +$2 +190%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records