Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09fd…b61e world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$600 (+6%) realized +$949 · open −$349
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$52
14 days+$330
30 days−$821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$955
crypto 25% −$972
politics 20% +$655
finance 17% −$1,172
other 5% −$399
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.6% +9.1% 53% 40% -3.5%
≤30d 37 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 27% -27.5%
≤90d 46 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 28% -30.0%
all 53 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 28% -15.7%
10% -30.4% 28% -23.8%
15% -37.1% 23% -31.1%
20% -43.3% 23% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$102 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$949
Unrealized−$349
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions11
Markets (closed)53 / 66
History coverage401d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $122 $27 −$95 (-78%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+102%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 41¢ 2¢ $113 $6 −$107 (-95%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $92 $3 −$89 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $44 $3 −$41 (-93%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 22¢ 5¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $32 +$68 +212%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $148 +$36 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$18 +156%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $109 +$100 +91%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 +$17 +301%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $144 −$12 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $186 −$15 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 13 $82 −$69 -84%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $61 −$13 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 08 $108 −$16 -14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $218 −$213 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $93 −$93 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $341 +$234 +69%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $454 +$697 +154%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 5? Jun 05 $43 −$42 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$51 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $91 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $130 −$129 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 −$8 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $463 −$109 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +50%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 03 $45 +$4 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,131 −$938 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $90 −$78 -87%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 7? May 07 $22 +$56 +260%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 7? May 07 $28 −$27 -98%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $376 −$376 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 03 $99 −$23 -24%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 29 $55 +$94 +170%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $143 −$143 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $50 +$150 +300%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $276 −$276 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 12h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 13h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $126 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 14h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 14h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 14h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $22 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $8 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $84 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $50 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $36 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.67 · official $145.68 (match) · 329 history records