Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09fe…76ee
crypto · 346 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,285 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,800 · open −$424
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,534
Realized−$1,800
Unrealized−$424
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions496
Markets (closed)148 / 346
History coverage8d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day386.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 496 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,036
7 days−$1,399
14 days−$1,800
30 days−$1,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 83¢ $754 $856 +$102 (+14%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $537 $538 +$1 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $532 $532 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $532 $532 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $477 $482 +$5 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $385 $432 +$48 (+12%)
Will James Richardson be the Republican nominee for AL-01? No 100¢ 98¢ $424 $418 −$7 (-2%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $371 +$0 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 4¢ 37¢ $36 $328 +$292 (+816%)
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $278 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR + AUR? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 99¢ 98¢ $252 $248 −$3 (-1%)
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $223 $232 +$9 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 31¢ 34¢ $190 $208 +$18 (+10%)
Will the Gedeo People’s Democratic Party (GPDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $176 $174 −$2 (-1%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $145 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $218 $141 −$77 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -79%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -51%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $0 +$19 +16484%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $625 −$625 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$10 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $44 −$6 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $47 −$31 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$47 -90%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$15 -74%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $114 −$114 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $39 −$29 -74%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $49 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $64 −$2 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$11 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $49 +$31 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $55 +$13 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $66 +$108 +163%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$5 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $23 −$8 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $65 −$18 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $25 −$10 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$19 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$15 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$23 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $56 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$57 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$10 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$11 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $38 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $249 +$93 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $22 −$6 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $37 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $66 +$11 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$26 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $57 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $214 −$214 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $34 −$24 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$400
crypto 27% −$1,756
tech 11% −$36
politics 3% −$33
economics 1% +$2
weather 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 82¢ $0 11m
Belgium to win the second half? BUY No 45¢ $0 49m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 74¢ $5 58m
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 100¢ $7 58m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY No 26¢ $2 58m
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $6 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $53 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $76 1h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $70 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $51 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +10.3% -0.2% 40% 36% -36.2%
≤30d 148 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 34% -32.8%
≤90d 148 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 34% -32.8%
all 148 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 34% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover386.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 34% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 25% -39.3%
15% -24.9% 20% -45.1%
20% -32.3% 13% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,533.77 · official $14,707.97 · 3500 history records