Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a03…0af5 sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,591 (+20%) realized +$2,424 · open +$167
Gross ROI / mkt +169% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip
Net edge+125%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate83%126W / 26L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$325
7 days+$406
14 days+$964
30 days+$2,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,499
other 0% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+143.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +53.1% +38.5% 82% 41% +1.0%
≤30d 100 +218.8% +188.4% 90% 62% +10.9%
≤90d 152 +169.4% +143.7% 83% 53% +9.3%
all 152 +169.4% +143.7% 83% 53% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +143.7% 53% +9.3%
10% +120.4% 41% -1.2%
15% +99.1% 38% -10.7%
20% +79.6% 30% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +169% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +134% → late +205% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.03 per $1 lost it wins $8.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized+$2,424
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses126 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions4
Markets (closed)152 / 156
History coverage61d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Vasco Esports 40¢ 50¢ $493 $617 +$125 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner Vasco Esports 40¢ 50¢ $113 $139 +$26 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner Vasco Esports 43¢ 50¢ $102 $118 +$16 (+16%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 24 $152 +$13 +9%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $277 −$4 -1%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $288 +$25 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $219 +$19 +9%
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$225 +150%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $69 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 23 $189 +$27 +14%
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Final Jun 23 $50 +$20 +41%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $2 $0 +19%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $58 −$30 -50%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $158 −$83 -52%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $32 +$5 +16%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $616 +$29 +5%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 17 $163 +$2 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $257 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $347 +$7 +2%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $340 +$133 +39%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $66 +$3 +5%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $46 +$17 +38%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $39 +$23 +60%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +400%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 14 $11 +$10 +92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 3: Any Player Rampage? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +733%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +733%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +733%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +900%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$42 +390%
Game Handicap: Noir (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 14 $16 +$36 +227%
Dota 2: Team Bald vs Inner Circle (BO1) - The International Europe Ope Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +614%
ITF Changwon: Dayeon Back vs Su Jeong Jang Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +900%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +614%
Dota 2: Sadboys vs Selva Esports (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Game Handicap: SELVA (-1.5) vs Sadboys (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$5 +900%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,474 +$276 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 19¢ $24 47m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL DFX Peek 81¢ $25 52m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 19¢ $1 54m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 36¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 38¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 37¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 38¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 38¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 40¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 43¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY Vasco Esports 44¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 43¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vasco Esports 44¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.66 · official $875.66 (match) · 895 history records