Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a05…dfbc other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized −$328 · open +$381
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$15,370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$209
sports 28% −$42
crypto 3% +$171
world 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -68.3%
all 16 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 25% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 25% -20.5%
10% -23.6% 25% -28.1%
15% -31.0% 19% -35.1%
20% -37.7% 19% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$156 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$15,370
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 28
History coverage637d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $5,000 $4,958 −$42 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,895 $2,321 +$426 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,931 $1,627 −$304 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,324 $1,497 +$173 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1,061 $1,401 +$340 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $918 $807 −$111 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,013 $701 −$312 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $644 $674 +$30 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $405 $661 +$256 (+63%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $286 $292 +$6 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $262 $255 −$7 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $176 −$74 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $200 −$100 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 26 $200 +$151 +76%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $200 +$12 +6%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 26 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $10 +$7 +73%
Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September? Oct 06 $120 +$1 +0%
MetaMask airdrop by September 30? Oct 06 $150 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop by September 30? Oct 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Linea airdrop by September 30? Oct 06 $100 $0 +0%
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30? Oct 06 $150 −$86 -57%
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October? Oct 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Oct 06 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? Sep 23 $590 +$148 +25%
Will Eternal Fire win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? Sep 22 $1,000 −$411 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $5,060 1h
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 27¢ $100 51d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 60d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $150 60d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $262 60d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $286 60d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $405 60d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $644 60d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $918 60d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,013 60d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,061 60d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,324 60d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,895 60d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,931 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $85 121d
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $100 165d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 165d
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 183d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 235d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 466d
Will Usyk beat Fury? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 546d
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 635d
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October? BUY No 100¢ $62 635d
Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September? BUY Yes 99¢ $120 635d
Rabby airdrop by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 635d
Linea airdrop by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 635d
MetaMask airdrop by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $150 635d
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30? SELL No $64 635d
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30? BUY No $150 635d
Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? BUY Yes 80¢ $590 637d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,369.97 · official $15,371.16 (match) · 109 history records