Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a07…6764 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%38W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$154
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$115
crypto 11% −$146
politics 10% +$75
other 6% +$55
world 0% −$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 44% -32.0%
≤30d 23 -39.6% -45.4% 39% 35% -35.6%
≤90d 23 -39.6% -45.4% 39% 35% -35.6%
all 86 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 35% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 35% -10.1%
10% -29.7% 29% -18.7%
15% -36.5% 23% -26.6%
20% -42.7% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses38 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage205d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$9 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$21 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$30 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 30 $50 −$42 -84%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 30 $21 +$9 +45%
Bucks vs. Hornets Dec 30 $15 +$6 +40%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Nuggets vs. Hornets Dec 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 07 $5 +$2 +32%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Dec 07 $5 +$17 +335%
Bucks vs. Pistons Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons Dec 06 $262 −$88 -34%
Nuggets vs. Hawks Dec 06 $255 +$22 +9%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $1,105 −$5 -0%
Jazz vs. Knicks Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-12-04? Dec 04 $77 −$19 -25%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during Rwanda and Congo events on Dec 04 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Trump say "Cambodia" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4 Dec 04 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Trump say "Eight wars" during Rwanda and Congo events on December Dec 04 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Trump say "Border" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Rwanda and Congo e Dec 04 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Trump say "Machete" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4? Dec 04 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during Rwanda and Congo event Dec 04 $498 +$31 +6%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Rwanda and Congo even Dec 04 $100 $0 +0%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) Dec 04 $342 −$240 -70%
Heat vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Dec 04 $20 +$145 +725%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $5 +$4 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $13 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AN BUY 11¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records