Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a08…08b7 sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-10%) realized −$69 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$53
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$72
other 26% −$35
world 3% −$21
crypto 1% −$5
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.2% -31.4% 33% 33% -29.6%
≤30d 23 -21.1% -28.6% 35% 35% -27.0%
≤90d 25 -21.6% -29.1% 36% 36% -27.6%
all 33 -34.8% -41.0% 30% 30% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 30% -33.0%
10% -46.7% 30% -39.4%
15% -51.8% 30% -45.2%
20% -56.5% 24% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 70
History coverage364d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+29%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Spain 46¢ 20¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$25 +97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$31 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -66%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$13 +185%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$17 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 04 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? May 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jul 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jul 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 05 $5 +$5 +92%
Will England win the match? Jul 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Türkiye vs. United Sta BUY $25 2m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United St BUY $21 9m
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $25 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O BUY 26¢ $132 46h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye vs. P BUY $4 46h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to S BUY 18¢ $102 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea BUY $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $25 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1 BUY $7 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 36¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $25 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $17 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $25 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal BUY $6 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 14¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 98¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.85 · official $247.99 · 100 history records