Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a08…2e25 politics 535 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 246d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,716 (+33%) realized +$13,765 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%283W / 321L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 247d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$911
other 27% +$2,861
sports 19% +$290
world 10% +$138
culture 8% +$1,754
crypto 1% +$259
tech 1% +$172
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -55.0% -59.3% 9% 9% -79.1%
≤30d 126 -36.3% -42.4% 28% 24% -50.9%
≤90d 271 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 37% -12.7%
all 604 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 41% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 41% -4.3%
10% -13.2% 36% -13.4%
15% -21.6% 29% -21.8%
20% -29.3% 23% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$40 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$13,765
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses283 / 321
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)604 / 535
History coverage247d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $46 $7 −$39 (-85%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Gaza Strip" during events with UK Prime Minister on Se Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Jun 24 $39 −$54 -139%
Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kenya win Intervision 2025? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Bin Laden" during September? Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Election" 3+ times on the Rachel Maddow Show o Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Russia win Intervision 2025? Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Belarus win Intervision 2025? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" on the Rachel Maddow Show Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Venezuela win Intervision 2025? Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during Museum of the Bible speech Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in October? Jun 24 $13 −$35 -273%
Will Trump's UN speech be between 35 and 40 minutes? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump's UN speech be between 40 and 45 minutes? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Hero" 4+ times during Fox & Friends appea Jun 24 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok Jack" this week? (September 22-28) Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Tango" during events with the President of Ukraine on Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? Jun 24 $3 +$4 +120%
Will Trump say "Turning Point" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Septe Jun 24 $24 −$17 -68%
Will Bernie say "Bernie" during CNN town hall on October 15? Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9 Jun 24 $36 −$10 -26%
Will Trump say "Hitler" or "Nazi" during Fox & Friends appearance on S Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 24 $20 −$25 -125%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox & Friends appearance o Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during events with Turkish president o Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Charlie" or "Kirk" on the Rachel Maddow Show o Jun 24 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Fox & Friends appearance on Septem Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (September 8-14) Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Trump say "Antifa" this week? (September 22-28) Jun 24 $66 −$48 -73%
Will Trump say "Crazy" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21? Jun 24 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Leavitt say "President" 70+ times during next White House press b Jun 24 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Country was dead" or "Dead country" during the Fox New Jun 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal" or "Illegally" during events with Polish pres Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Vietnam" or "Korea" during 9-11 memorial event? Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" in October? Jun 24 $94 −$129 -137%
Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2? Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Doug" on the Rachel Maddow Show on September 2 Jun 24 $73 −$137 -189%
Will Trump say "Fraud" this week? (September 1 - 7) Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on Se Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Obamacare" this week? (October 13 - 19) Jun 24 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during next White House press bri Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Trump say "N Word" in October? Jun 24 $52 −$88 -169%
Will Trump say "Jet Fuel" during 9-11 memorial event? Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Jun 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $130 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $59 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $140 1h
Will Trump say "Manufacturing" this week? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 21h
Will Trump say "Truck" this week? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $222 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 26h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $268 26h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 32h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $48 32h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 32h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 32h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 32h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 33h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.36 · official $7.36 (match) · 3500 history records