Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a0a…ec87 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 40% −$15
sports 6% +$55
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 108 +1.1% -8.5% 5% 4% -9.7%
all 125 +3.9% -6.0% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.0% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×10.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage116d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $416 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $217 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $230 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $446 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 21 $281 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $414 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 8h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 8h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 26h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 7d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $265 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $265 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $267 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $187 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $187 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records