Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a0a…c19e sports 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$206 (+8%) realized +$206 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%122W / 125L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$124
14 days+$107
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$142
other 23% +$38
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -34.6% -40.8% 35% 29% -47.7%
≤30d 37 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 43% -4.2%
≤90d 67 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 49% +1.2%
all 247 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 43% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 43% -3.2%
10% -20.1% 34% -12.4%
15% -27.8% 29% -20.9%
20% -34.9% 21% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses122 / 125
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage209d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$8 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$9 -40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$7 -36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$60 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$54 +213%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $65 +$58 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$17 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 +$19 +112%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 +$9 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $34 +$22 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 +$11 +66%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $55 +$6 +11%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $21 −$7 -34%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $15 −$13 -88%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $202 +$117 +58%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $86 −$85 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $21 −$16 -75%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 23 $68 +$34 +51%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $41 +$26 +63%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? May 23 $15 −$1 -8%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $121 +$44 +36%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $41 +$10 +24%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $20 +$2 +10%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $36 +$6 +16%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 +$36 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 70¢ $10 16m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $20 14h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 44h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $11 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $43 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $20 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $17 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $41 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $21 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 522 history records