Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0a0a…ada0 crypto 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,772 (-11%) realized −$2,772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%108W / 103L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$0
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,908
sports 9% −$147
other 3% −$11
world 1% −$78
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 37% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 44% -1.7%
≤90d 125 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 42% -21.3%
all 211 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 44% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -20.8%
10% -24.3% 41% -28.4%
15% -31.6% 34% -35.3%
20% -38.3% 25% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$71 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses108 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage277d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$25 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $18 +$6 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $33 +$37 +114%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -18%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$18 +596%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$35 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $158 −$13 -8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $180 −$23 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $546 −$539 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 11 $1,331 +$74 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 11 $1,626 −$1,020 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 11 $1,605 +$69 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 11 $1,002 +$602 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 11 $902 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 11 $612 +$227 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 11 $604 +$50 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 11 $510 +$174 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 11 $521 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 11 $965 −$937 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $1,422 +$58 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 11 $1,012 −$980 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 11 $390 −$378 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 11 $312 −$300 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 81¢ $24 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 81¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 37¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $80 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 4h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 35h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 787 history records