Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a0c…a853 weather 1128 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,209 (+12%) realized +$929 · open +$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%450W / 346L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day232.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,707
7 days+$359
14 days+$1,259
30 days+$1,259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,035
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 600 +16.2% +5.1% 49% 49% -4.3%
≤30d 796 +33.9% +21.1% 57% 56% +5.6%
≤90d 796 +33.9% +21.1% 57% 56% +5.6%
all 796 +33.9% +21.1% 57% 56% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.1% 56% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here +9.5% 56% -4.5%
15% -1.1% 42% -13.8%
20% -10.8% 24% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,803
Realized+$929
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses450 / 346
Open positions156
Markets (closed)796 / 1128
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day232.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 156 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $10 $71 +$61 (+612%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $9 $68 +$59 (+636%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $20 $58 +$38 (+192%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $10 $42 +$32 (+316%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $9 $39 +$30 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? No 61¢ 96¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 28? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+157%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? No 72¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27? No 73¢ 100¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 29? No 74¢ 78¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? No 63¢ 68¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29? No 77¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? No 69¢ 100¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? No 58¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? No 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? No 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 29? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? No 55¢ 48¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 28? Yes 25¢ 43¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 27? No 60¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 340 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 28 $0 $0 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 26? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 28 $15 −$12 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 26? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 28 $0 +$3 +1338%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 28 $18 −$19 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 8? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 14? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Jun 28 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 28? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 23? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 21? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 29? BUY No 72¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY No 69¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 60¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY No 56¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY No 54¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY No 54¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,803.38 · official $1,801.68 (match) · 3500 history records