Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0a0c…37e1 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$937 (+25%) realized +$940 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%29W / 9L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$779
sports 26% +$151
tech 18% +$1
other 17% +$1
politics 6% $0
weather 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +58.3% +43.2% 75% 33% +28.8%
all 38 +27.7% +15.5% 76% 29% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 29% +13.7%
10% +4.5% 26% +2.8%
15% -5.6% 24% -7.1%
20% -14.9% 24% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.94 per $1 lost it wins $6.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses29 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage243d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30? No 98¢ 95¢ $121 $118 −$3 (-3%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 98¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Jun 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 May 15 $119 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 26 $112 +$88 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 10 $60 +$140 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 10 $80 +$110 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 10 $30 +$164 +545%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $137 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 13? Mar 17 $476 $0 +0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Mar 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 13 $258 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of February? Mar 02 $374 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 13 $155 +$319 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 13 $82 +$85 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 13 $54 +$28 +52%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Feb 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 107 billion views by March 31? Jan 17 $13 $0 +0%
Hobart International, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Moyuka Uchij Jan 17 $12 +$28 +223%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28? Jan 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 04 $28 $0 +0%
Fannie Mae IPO in 2025? Dec 29 $2 −$1 -67%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Dec 25 $1 $0 +17%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET Dec 18 $39 −$22 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Dec 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Nov 10 $175 +$1 +1%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 09 $278 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Nov 05 $140 +$35 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $150 +$88 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $121 1h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 99¢ $99 22d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $21 22d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $120 45d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 BUY No 100¢ $87 63d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 BUY No 100¢ $32 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $110 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $190 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $49 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $60 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down $8 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.54 · official $132.54 (match) · 199 history records