Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a11…84cb sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate66%47W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$23
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$53
other 3% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.6% -2.6% 65% 65% -8.9%
≤30d 71 +3.8% -6.1% 66% 58% -9.9%
≤90d 71 +3.8% -6.1% 66% 58% -9.9%
all 71 +3.8% -6.1% 66% 58% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 58% -9.9%
10% -15.1% 48% -18.5%
15% -23.3% 37% -26.4%
20% -30.8% 20% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$52 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses47 / 24
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage10d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Dallas Wings 55¢ 16¢ $44 $13 −$31 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $71 +$26 +36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $71 +$24 +34%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $101 +$23 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $71 +$39 +55%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $71 +$31 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $67 +$35 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $75 +$31 +42%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $81 +$57 +71%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $44 +$34 +77%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 +$13 +27%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $93 +$37 +40%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $62 +$31 +50%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $70 −$59 -85%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $58 +$11 +19%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $99 −$40 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $79 −$78 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $198 −$195 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $128 −$126 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $101 −$9 -9%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $51 +$29 +56%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $69 +$39 +57%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $71 +$24 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $64 +$82 +128%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $89 +$46 +51%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$36 +103%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $91 +$17 +19%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $41 +$48 +118%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $100 −$1 -0%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $80 +$24 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $60 −$3 -5%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $63 +$50 +79%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $103 +$60 +58%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $72 +$31 +43%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $30 +$21 +69%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $40 +$20 +49%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $45 39m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 53¢ $14 41m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $15 42m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $96 44m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $71 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $95 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $124 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $71 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 80¢ $101 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $110 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $102 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $71 7h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 68¢ $71 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 97¢ $102 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $67 8h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $131 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $71 11h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 100¢ $106 12h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 70¢ $75 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $138 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 58¢ $81 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $91 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 55¢ $51 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $44 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 97¢ $64 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 76¢ $50 25h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 100¢ $130 25h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 71¢ $93 25h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 66¢ $62 27h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 36¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.20 · official $13.20 (match) · 138 history records