Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a15…4cdc other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,208 (+1%) realized +$2,208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 124L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$98
other 40% +$123
sports 10% +$2,179
world 2% −$45
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 81 +3.2% -6.6% 9% 6% -8.1%
all 159 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -8.5%
10% -19.8% 8% -17.3%
15% -27.5% 8% -25.3%
20% -34.6% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,686) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$7 · ×11.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized+$2,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $341 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $342 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 23 $275 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $311 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,545 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,667 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $1,927 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,247 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,536 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $59 +$34 +57%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,174 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $465 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $694 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,016 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,681 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $5,147 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $88 +$38 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,169 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $4,852 −$6 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $4,503 −$6 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,346 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $3,322 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 2h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $342 9h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $275 24h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $275 26h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $377 26h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $378 29h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $311 29h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $311 31h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $382 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $356 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $357 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $385 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $386 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,257 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,259 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,273 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 11d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $430 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,468 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,539 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.87 · official $429.87 (match) · 539 history records